DXY holds 101 as the 10-year tags 5.23% into PCE and NFP week

From Friday 25 September the dollar index faded a few handles then reclaimed 101. The 10-year printed as high as 5.23% — the firmest since 2007 — before easing. October hike odds sit near 70%. This week’s PCE, JOLTS, ADP and NFP will decide whether 101 is a base or a fade.

7 min read · 28 September 2026

DXY

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

What printed since Friday

Friday 25 September the dollar index slipped toward 100.95 — its largest one-day drop in three weeks — as oil eased and the yen bid after Tokyo’s intervention language. That dip did not unwind the week. DXY still closed a second consecutive weekly gain and a two-month high near 101. The 10-year Treasury tagged about 5.23% intraday, the highest since June 2007, then settled nearer 5.16–5.17%. The 30-year held a 2004-area high. CME FedWatch carried October 25 bp odds from the mid-50s early last week toward about 70% into Monday.

How the tape answered into Monday

A quiet G10 open left the index around 101 with EUR/USD near 1.138 and cable near 1.323. MUFG marked 101.80 — the 24 June high — as the next resistance if energy keeps lifting US yields. This is still a rates tape. Flash PMI 58.4 last week, durable goods that refused to miss, and a curve that is no longer offering much 2s10s cushion all keep USD bid versus Europe and sterling. The yen is the exception only because 160 is now a political level, not because the differential closed.

What the desk watches next

Tuesday JOLTS and Conference Board confidence. Wednesday ADP and August PCE. Friday NFP. A hot core PCE with a still-tight labour print keeps 101 and invites 101.80. A soft PCE that knocks October odds back toward 50% puts 100.50 back on the blotter. Do not stack a USD long into every hawkish quote — those quotes are already in the two-year and the index.

Risk note

A 19-year high in the 10-year is a level, not a licence. Stops still gap around data and oil headlines. This note is education for a desk you already run — not a recommendation to buy the dollar.

These notes are education, not a recommendation to trade, and not a solicitation. Leveraged FX can return a total loss of capital, quickly. Nothing here is personal advice. SummitFx does not hold client funds. Read the risk disclosure.