Sterling sits near a three-month low while the Fed, not Threadneedle, sets the spread

Cable spent 22–25 September sliding from the mid-1.33s toward 1.3220, a three-month trough, and was on track for its worst week in four months. The BoE is still on hold at 3.75%. The dollar is not.

6 min read · 25 September 2026

GBP/USD

EUR/GBP

GBP/JPY

The tape

Tuesday 22 September GBP/USD faded 0.23% to 1.3332, a second down day and a sixth decline in seven. Wednesday the PMI dollar bid took cable toward 1.3343 then lower. Thursday it languished near 1.3240. Friday it probed 1.3220. CBI distributive trades printed −55 against −49 expected — a soft UK demand overlay, not the main driver. The driver is the two-year US yield.

Hold versus hike

The MPC’s 6–3 hold at 3.75% on 17 September is still the UK policy setting. Three members wanted 4.00%. Against a Fed that has already hiked and is being priced for October, that hold is a wider dollar spread. GBP/JPY can still rise when yen is the weaker currency. Cable cannot, until the dollar index gives back 101.

What the desk watches next

UK CPI, energy, and whether November’s 6–3 becomes a hike. Oil diplomacy that knocks US inflation odds would help sterling more than a single UK survey. Treat 1.32 as a zone. Do not mix a BoE hold with a USD short.

Risk note

A three-month low can bounce on positioning alone. Size from the stop. This is desk colour, not a sterling recommendation.

These notes are education, not a recommendation to trade, and not a solicitation. Leveraged FX can return a total loss of capital, quickly. Nothing here is personal advice. SummitFx does not hold client funds. Read the risk disclosure.